FARMERS’ PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION TO CROP PRODUCTION IN NORTHERN BANGLADESH

Abstract

The purposes of the study were to assess the farmers’ vulnerability due to climatic variability, to determine the farmers’ perception of climate change to crop production, to determine the adaptation strategies practiced by the farmers against the climate change in crop production, to ascertain the contribution of selected characteristics of farmers to their perception of climate change and adaptation to crop production and to ascertain the constraints faced by the farmers on adapting crop production and proposed suggestions to overcome the constraints. Data were collected using a pretested interview schedule from the farmers of eight villages of Mithapukur upazilla, Rangpur district of Bangladesh from 15 July to 15 December 2019. In contrast, qualitative data were also gathered using FGDs and case studies. Multistage random sampling procedure was used to select the sample farmers having the size of 240 drawn from a population of 960. The selected 15 traits of the farmers were the independent variables and their perception of climate change and adaptation to crop production were the dependent variables. Perception of climate change was arranged adding-up the responses against 27 climatic components related to rainy, winter and summer seasons along with the 2-point continuum scale viz. change (increase or decrease) and no change. In contrast, adaptation to crop production was judged considering 20 strategies along with the 4-point rating scale. The descriptive statistical measures were used to analyze and interpret the data. Step-wise multiple regression analyses were employed to ascertain the contribution of independent variables to their perception of climate change and adaptation to crop production. The results regarding perception indicate that 75.83 and 77.08% of the farmers perceived medium changes in rainy and winter season, respectively while 78.75% medium level of changes occurred in summer season. The highest proportion (55.73%) of the farmers’ had medium adaptation practices but 25.93% highly adapted and only 19.34% had low adaptation. Twelve out of 15 profiles of the farmers were significantly correlated with their perception of climate change and 13 characteristics were significantly associated with their adaptation to crop production. Regression analysis indicates that four characteristics of the farmers jointly explained 40% of total variation of farmers’ perception of climate change and 51.5% total variation of adaptation to crop production. Three and four traits had significant influence separately on the farmers’ perception and adaptation. The contribution of education alone (37.1%) of the variation in farmers’ perception of climate change followed by age (1.8%) and risk-orientation (1.1%), in that order. In case of adaptation, extension media contact alone contributes 40% of the variation followed by education (6.7), risk orientation (3.0%) and awareness (1.8%), correspondingly. The path analyses indicate that three characteristics: education, risk orientation, and age have positive and negative effects on farmers’ perception of climate change. Alternatively, extension media contact, education, risk orientation, and awareness have positive effect on adaptation to crop production. Among the independent variables education has the highest direct positive effect (0.569) but age has the highest indirect negative effect (- 0.207) on perception. In case of adaptation, among the independent variables extension media contact had the highest positive and direct effect (0.282). The highest proportion (67.92%) of the respondents had faced medium constraint while 19.17 percent had low constraint and only 12.92% had high constraint. Nevertheless, to overcome the above constraints, the farmers mentioned, 10 suggestions of which majority of the respondents (70.83%) suggested ‘Weather forecast should be more accurate and timely’.